On the attempted assassination of Trump last weekend:

It relieves our mimetic violence. An explanation per Girardian frameworks:

Mimetic theory suggests that no human desire is original. We desire things because others desire them, and we model our desires on others’ desires. Consequently, desire converges on the same objects, and individuals become both rivals and mirrors, fighting for the same thing that each suspects the other of possessing. Mimeticism has been used to explain modern behavioral phenomena like the success of the social platforms and social media comparison traps – Thiel supposedly modeled his early investment in Facebook on this.

The mimetic structure of behavior means that violence escalates / replicates rapidly. And the only resolution of violence, according to Girard, is sacrifice – the scapegoat. The energy of imitation switches toward an arbitrarily selected target, who is universally blamed for the crisis and hated for it. The victim is declared guilty and murdered or expelled, thus restoring harmony. Mimetic violence becomes a unifying factor and the act of transferring internal tension onto an external target sets a foundation for peace and restores social order.

A critical component of scapegoat theory is the scapegoat must acknowledge guilt (i.e. Oedipus admits he is the cause of plague and accepts expulsion). Ironically, the self-confessed scapegoat thus becomes the savior, because he is the cause of restored social peace. The exception to this, according to Girard, is Christianity. It subverts the scapegoat mechanism by insisting on the innocence of the scapegoat. Jesus is not guilty, his killer is. When the scapegoat does not cooperate in his execution, it exposes scapegoating for its truth as an unjust perpetration of violence. It unravels the sacrificial concept. Thus introduces the idea of anti-scapegoat.

Humanity is the repeated revealing and relieving of scapegoats; uniting against a common enemy is an effective way of preserving order. Both World Wars, The Cold War, 9/11 and Al Qaeda, and most recently China and / or Putin are all hypothetical scapegoats. America today is hyperpolarized – a war of all against all, at least political party vs political party each pursuing the same power (horseshoe theory is exactly this). Mimetic violence is peaking. We need an outlet. In theory, Trump is the perfect target for a modern scapegoat. This idea has been pushed for years. Destroy him – remove from office, jail him – and peace will be restored. It is not an entirely misjudged line of thinking. The problem is scapegoating requires universal alignment – the only way mimeticism is really relieved. Trump has maintained support relatively 50/50 – If there is no consensus, there is no sacrifice. He has never embodied the scapegoat people wanted him to be. Nor has Elon, nor has @sama, nor has Thiel…

The other idea is that Trump is the anti-scapegoat, adjacent to Christ (per above). He has never and will never acknowledge guilt. Yet mimetic relief via this route is not possible either. Anti-scapegoat requires he is wholly a victim of sacrifice or expulsion, which he is not, nor did the events of this last weekend change that. By virtue of no death, he is not martyr either.

We did not expect the sacrifice that would save us would come in this form. Thomas Matthew Crooks is our self-confessed scapegoat. The arbitrarily chosen Other, defined by unanimous hatred and ultimate killing, which represents our long awaited reset. Your enemy’s enemy is your friend: anything in opposition to the scapegoat became consensus good. Trump’s enemy is everyone’s enemy and in doing so began the dissolution of our mimetic violence. Early evidence of this is (1) a relatively quiet and composed Trump response in the days following shooting – this reaction would have been very different 4 or 8 years ago, (2) increased voter comfortability around revealing voting preference / Trump support, with little backlash comparatively.  

It is rare to be granted a scapegoat of this nature. When hate transfers to the shooter, Trump is relieved of scapegoat status himself. He benefits enormously. Prediction markets say he has the election. The logic maps right now – attempted assassination makes anyone an object of empathy, immune to criticism, at least temporarily. The power is tremendous. Given this position I assume his power compounds from here. How he wields it will be telling. There is a world where his behavior settles knowing extremism might not be as powerful a weapon to wield as previously used.

How unexpected – the shooter is our twisted savior who delivers a coordinating force for social unity – or at least a chance at it, and it will be interesting to see how the rest of the year plays out as a result. Trump is safe, at least for the time being. The mimetic cycle begins again and as it compounds he may again present as an obvious target — this is the way of humanity. At this point it is his election to lose.